Billy Davies might not have been the proverbial dead man walking but he’d been living on borrowed time for over a year…
It’s understandable that many people are shocked at his sacking with two play-off positions in as many years. But the results on the pitch only paint half the picture. This has been more than a season in the making – and, to be honest, I’m surprised it took so long.
Yes, many of Davies’ complaints were valid but his way of going about things has irked the board and many fans. The damage is irreparable. And the long and short of it is that his position was untenable.
If Davies had just shut his mouth and got on with the job we might not be where we are. This could have been a lengthy reign, a chance to establish a legacy of successful free-flowing football… But Billy Davies is all about Billy Davies. And he’s repeated the same mistakes he made at Preston and Derby. The next chairman to be appoint him should be very wary.
But I wish him well. Forest were struggling to re-establish themselves in the second tier of football when he arrived. Within six months he returned our pride; our belief; our place among the Championship’s top teams. Within 18 months he delivered the hope of promotion, a glimpse of the Promised Land. But he’d already sown the seeds of his demise.
He was the right man at the right time for Forest but it was only ever going to be a short time. Davies is not a man for long-term building, someone who develops the youth players, who brings the whole club forwards as one — and that’s what we need now. Davies was the tempestuous affair we needed to stir our loins, return our self-confidence and restore that glint in our eye. And it was never going to last.
The additions in the summer of 2009 marked Forest out as one of the big spenders in the Championship — nine players at a cost of £5-6 million, a year after Robbie Earnshaw was signed for £2.65 million — but Davies behaved like a petulant child when he didn’t get his own way during the January 2010 transfer window. It’s anyone’s guess why we didn’t strengthen then — of course there’s no guarantees in football. Signings don’t equal promotion.
His ongoing battle with the board continued throughout the season and, let’s be honest, he was lucky to keep his job last summer — Nigel Doughty had clearly lost patience. But in a classic ‘divide-and-rule’ tactic, Davies had already turned the supporters against the board and in doing so, secured their backing for him as manager. Any failures could now be directed — rightly or wrongly — against the board.
But lose the trust of your employer and you’re never really going to be fully supported. And let’s not forget his public posturing for the Celtic job as well as numerous rumours about links to other vacant jobs. Yes he’s ambitious — and that’s the kind of manager we want. But ambition for our club, not himself.
Before Billy arrived no one had ever heard of the now infamous ‘transfer acquisition panel’ — and if they had, nobody really had a problem with it. Indeed, after his first six months the TAP delivered nine new players. Granted, some had been on loan already but, as we’ve seen, converting loan players to permanent contracts isn’t as easy as it appears. Many clubs have something resembling the TAP but it’s only Davies who has publicly slated its existence.
Football, in the current economic climate, is about value-for-money, it’s about managing wages and living within your means. Yes, the chairman should occasionally splash out and spend a few million but you have to bring through young players and you have to look to the lower leagues for potential, rough diamonds and the odd bargain.
As it turns out, so we’re led to believe, Davies turned down numerous players — both signings and loans — that did not fit his game plan. Davies isn’t one to compromise. Especially when he’s identified a couple of ‘stellar signings’. We didn’t need to sign million-pound players last summer, we just needed a few bargain gems to boost the squad. We certainly didn’t need seven strikers.
Rumours abound that Davies turned down the opportunity to take Scott Sinclair from Chelsea — a left-winger no less — who then signed for Swansea for £500,000 rising to £1m on promotion and scored 19 goals. Henri Lansbury, again another player allegedly who Davies turned down, went to Norwich. You get the point. Numerous other players have been linked — as usual, it’s difficult to sift the truth from the rumours.
Take a look at the three teams who were promoted last season — QPR, Norwich and Swansea. See any big signings there? Not really, just three managers who know how to get the best out of their squads, work within their means and get on with the job.
If we needed a few signings for the short-term, then maybe our investment in the academy would see us through the medium- to long-term? After just six months in charge Davies abandoned the reserve team. Maybe he had grand plans for the development of the younger players coming through the academy as well as the match fitness of squad players. As it is, the reserve team was reinstated a season later when it became clear that those players only making the bench weren’t match fit and there was no bridge between the academy and the first team. Brendan Moloney was one of the only players to be given a chance during Davies’ reign, albeit in the last few games of the season when it appeared Davies had fallen out with Chris Gunter.
It’s always going to be impossible trying to work out fact, speculation, truth and rumour at Nottingham Forest. There’s too many ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes’… What would have happened if Davies had his way? Would he have been happy if we’d made a few of the signings he’d requested? Would we have been promoted?
Arguably, he was only working with what he had but many fans point to the fact that after two years in the job he still didn’t appear to know our best formation. Worse still, he didn’t know his first XI. Our style of play was too easily influenced by opponents and, away from home, tactics were often devised to avoid defeat. Not negative perhaps but not playing to win. Again, look at the successful teams last season — you always knew the formation they’d line up, who the key men were and how they’d play.
His constant playing down of the team and the squad — ‘too young, too naïve, not enough depth’ — might have been managing expectations but it could hardly have instilled confidence. One of his favourite refrains was ‘we are a top six side at best’. Clearly still smarting from his experience with Derby, maybe caution was necessary but when the difference between 24 teams is confidence then maybe caution isn’t what you need.
If you saw Billy Davies’ Nottingham Forest side destroy a soon-to-be-promoted West Brom at the Hawthorns in January 2010 then you saw everything we were — and are — capable of. And I salute Davies for bringing some steel, some vision, some know-how and the ability to send out a well-drilled, organised team with a gameplan. Alas, we’ve never quite hit those heights since.
Let’s be clear, the secrecy at Nottingham Forest — the lack of transparency — in everything from transfers to ambition is an embarrassment. There are problems with decision-making and the board’s relationship with the fans. But Billy Davies’ time with the club was up. And in Steve McClaren we have a manager with an incredible CV. This is a progression not a step backwards or sideways. Onwards and upwards…
All of this is open to scrutiny, does not claim to be conclusive and comments are more than welcome.
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I think you are right that Billy Davies is not a long term option, his focus is on the present and buying what he needs, not on developing structures. he appeared always to be expecting the sack and so had no interest in the long term.
Having said that he has been good for Forest as a club because he has reinstated the club’s reputation after a period in League One but has left before being able to saddle us with expensive ageing players. His cnostant harping about having a young squad and his refusal to sign the likes of Sinclair because of his youth suggest that we are wise to part company. Clubs at our level with our resources should be developing youth and talent spotting lower down the pyramid ratherr than targetting £30k a week strikers.
It is a case of being grateful for what Billy has done over the past two and a half years whilst being glad that we are now moving to a new approach, capitalising on our improved position to attract a high calibre manager and hopefully aiming longer term.
Check the bookies who are rarely wrong we have slipped from 4-1 for promotion to 14-1. Fact, we are the laughing stock, embarrassment Mc Clueless at the helm with his brolley ready!
Sick joke and an insult to all of us that have supported the club for many years.
Good Luck Billy you deserve better
Nottingham Forest was Billy Davies’ chance at redeeming himself after leaving two clubs under a dark cloud. Twente was Steve McClaren’s chance at redeeming himself after leaving England under a dark cloud.
I never particularly rated McClaren until Twente but what he did there — and in retrospect at Middlesbrough — makes him probably the best manager, bar Martin O’Neill, we could have got. I’m open-minded…
And if you remember, the bookies had Davies as odds-on favourite for the West Ham job at one point
I don’t think Cliff quite understands football betting. Forest are 14/1 to WIN the championship, not to get promotion. We have never been 4/1 to WIN the 2011/2012 championship. Personally i am absolutely delighted that Davies has gone, his moaning about not being backed (despite fantastic financial backing from ND), his harping on that players were to young and weren’t good enough and his general paranoia about everything around him really started to grate. In Steve Mclaren we have one of the best English coaches around, one with a fantastic CV and i for one think this is a fantastic move to ensure success in the future for Nottingham Forest.
Stuart
To CLiff….Sorry to point out the fact that you are spouting complete rubbish regarding the odds to win the NPC.Forest were NEVER 4/1 in the first place and have been between 12 and 14/1 since the season finished with very little business done on the market.
I am a bookmaker so i suggest you stick to what you know which i presume is [CENSORED]…
Tradermick
FOREST TILL I DIE
after reading that lot,i gotta be honest,not many do no the back ground goings on, but now thats been shown i for one am going to shut my mouth an let the board an nigel doughty get on with what they do..thanks for that
i dont think that you can knock billys job he did, if only he could keep his gob shut lol, i happy with mcclaren think he is a fantastic coach and our youth and in fact all players will benefit from him at the helm. time will tell how he does i just hope we get atleast 4 players in defo a left back 3 years without a permanent one is a bit silly
Last week we were 14/1 to win the league on BetFair, so the change of manager has had no effect.
I don’t really see how this is a bad move. McClaren is not a bad appointment, I don’t understand the negative reaction. We aren’t a Premiership team and haven’t been since 1999, forget about Martin O’Neill, it’s always unrealistic. Look at the other people we were linked with, Hughton (yes he did well in his only job but his main achievement was going up with Newcastle, and let’s be far with that squad I’d have been disappointed if I didn’t take them up), Mackay (likely going to Cardiff), Keane (Dear God no!). Who else could we realistically have got that’s proven to be better than McClaren? No one….
The reaction of some fans, it’s almost as if we’ve employed David Platt!
Great article. BD did a great job in pulling us up from an immediate return to League 2 when we scraped home against Norwich away, but lets be honest after WBA away we never looked a convincing bet to go up+make an impact. No point going up and being cannon-fodder, BD didnt know our best team in the championship never mind the Prem. 7 forwards, one of whom knows where the net is, and Majeski on the bench says it all…… Unsure about SMc, but prob our best bet if backed by Doughty and we get rid of the panel. BD is a good guy, welcome back whenever he visits, but he should learn from this and let his team do the talking. I just got sick of the winging and devisive comments/atmosphere. Lets back SMc, and build a team which can make an impact in the Prem, not scrape up and do a Blackpool….
I think you summed up my thoughts succinctly.
Great blogpost. Lots of elements true but you’ll never know the full story. Billy did a great job and I believe he was capable of more. The sticking points are that Pleat is not needed at TCG and MArthur is a sly dog who, as a buffer bewtween ND and manager can safeguard his own position. Billy is passionate and in true Forest style a load of bad stuff is quickly doing the rounds for the fickle and NO SURPRISE that Pleat has been letting a few “stories” out this evening!!! Regardless this is possibly the best blog on the net regarding the old manager / new manager situation: thank you Billy and good luck AND welcome Shteve and good luck…. but… if McClaren doesn’t work out, then surely Doughty, MArthur and Pleat should leave at the same time? After all under the current board we have had MORE managers than in the entire time before they arrived……….
Thanks, an interesting article and a good read.
whats sad about davies is that he could be a very successful manager. he has a real drive and passion and a determination to succeed. trouble is his priority is Billy Davies, it has never been and never will be about the clubs he is working for.
this leads him to be constantly bleating to the media claiming his side arent good enough (so he has a good excuse for why they didnt succeed when he eventually leaves) and then moaning at the board for not backing him (again to cover himself)
i think he is naive to think that the footballing world doesnt now see this, and this will have a serious impact on his ability to get the sort of job his managerial ability probably deserves.
it would be a very brave/foolish/desperate chairman that takes him on now i suspect. he will demand lots of money for signings, whether he needs them or not and he has a questionable acquisition record when he is backed.(7 strikers at forest and they still couldnt score enough goals?) He will slag off his own squad in the media, thus damaging their confidence ( i still cant figure out why he does this) and as soon as he doesnt get the money, or the individual players he wants he will run to the media and slag off the chairman and the board, in fact anyone other than Brand Billy Davies. A potentially great manager, ruined by his fatal flaws of ruthless, transparent ambition and arrogance.
I am grateful to Billy Davies for turning around the fortunes of the club. Let’s be honest we were lucky to get promotion from division 1 under Calderwood. The team was then found out in The Championship. Billy came in and with some clever loans stopped us going back to division 1. He was well supported by ND that first summer and we did mount a good challenge for promotion, ultimately coming unstuck because we didn’t get a proper left back after Shorey left and a lack of reserves when McKenna was injured. Last season we did well again but little investment at the right time – i.e. January, meant we couldn’t push on and challenge QPR & Norwich. Yes we brought in Tudgay who started well but faded. Boyd who was unfit and overweight but got better as time went on. Konchesky who was OK but never looked liked he was good enough. Billy’s comments when interviewed did suggest a long running feud with ND and especially Mark Arthur. The lack of communication between the Board and the fans will mean that we will take Billy’s side against the Board because ultimately we think he was doing a better job than them.
Very good article. Some excellent points.
One thing I would say, however, is that whilst Billy came out and said what he did to the media about “we’re a top six side at best”, it was definitely not what he said to the players. Countless times people like, Chambers, came out and said what was communicated to the media is not what was instilled in them. So, I don’t think you can argue this had a negative impact on the players. One thing which seemed abundantly clear was that the players completely respected the decisions he made.
Secondly, I disagree QPR didn’t spend much money. Not to mention Faurlin ( who cost 3.5 million – not last year), people like Mackie, Smith and Hulse didn’t come cheap.
Nonetheless, I am sad he’s gone, he did a lot to instill belief in the club once more, but best of luck to McClaren – lets hope he can take us that next stage further.
Well done Billy for the job you did establishing Forest as a top six championship team with the foundations in place to take the next step, however your constant sniping and divisive comments have lost you the chance to take that step yourself.
I agree with the comments above regarding Billy’s comments, especially his poor attempt at some sort of psychology regards to the ‘inexperience, immaturity and naivety’ of the players, which undermined the confidence of the team. These comments were constantly heard after christmas when the team was struggling ( this year and last year ), and yet to my knowledge the players have over 2000 championship appearances between them.
The board have their critics and rightly so, especially regards the lack of communucation with the fans, however the correct decision has been made and a fantastic appointment put in place, McClaren should never have been offered the england job and his biggest mistake was accepting it. For a championship club to get a manager who has been employed in the top tier of england, holland and germany, and won trophy’s is a great coup.
Good luck Steve
I for one am pitting my amateur reputation on you being a success!!
Great article and I have to agree with almost all of it. Billy did a great job but he was never gonna be long term and frankly I had got to the point where I could have given his press conferences after defeats as we all knew what he was going to say; young team, naive, tired etc etc etc.
McClaren? wasn’t sure initially but more knowledgable folk than i say nothing but good things about him,so I am prepared to give himthe benefir of the doubt.
Afre all,we support the Club, not the manager. They come and go (the only thing certain about any managerial appointment is that one day he will get the sack) but the Club remains.
YOU REDS!
This is just one persons view and I think it is missing many important points. Billy turned Forest around, and he did it in style. He has always been outspoken, the club knew this when they appointed him, as will his next club. He spoke the truth, and the truth hurts, and I believe this is ultimately why the club sacked him. SM is a decent manager, but is no better than Billy, and the club will not give him much in the way of spending power. I do not see Forest getting any higher than mid table this coming season UNLESS some serious money is injected.
Total joke of a decision and joke of an article.
Sacking Davies is the single most worst decision any club has ever made.