Fire sale at the City Ground?

December 13, 2011 9 Comments »

With talk of a ‘fire sale’ in January to raise funds, guest writer Peter Blackburn looks at the possibilities available to Steve Cotterill.

The winds of change are whistling through the City Ground, threatening to overwhelm a club that has been relatively stable — league position and mismanagement aside — for many years now. A relic, still standing as a monument to former glory, the peeling paint and tired appearance of this once great stadium only serves to further highlight the gaping gulf that exists between current failings and former joys.

For a significant time now Forest have had few financial worries. Despite massive losses regularly reported on the balance sheet, the black hole has always been plugged by a benefactor either generous, foolish or blood-sucking, depending on your point of view. Regardless of mixed opinions, there can be no doubt that the money poured into Nottingham Forest by Nigel Doughty made the Reds a club capable of competing in the transfer market and endlessly dreaming of a return to the promised land.

But Dylan could have been singing for Forest; the times they are a changing. Doughty has gone and slowly takes his financial backing with him. Forest are in the position of having to be frugal for the first time in many years and are in a precarious position with players out of contract and, in many places, an over-paid and unbalanced squad.

If various media reports are to be believed then the vultures are circling — and rightly so. Despite an unflattering league position and various performances of monumental failings, Forest still possess enough ‘wood’ to make a fire sale a real possibility. Without players leaving, Steve Cotterill cannot offer any new deals; Wes Morgan, Luke Chambers, Joel Lynch and Paul Anderson are all out of contract at the end of the season.

The sale of Morgan and Chambers are perhaps the most real and worrying threats that the Reds face. It would be realistic to suggest a Forest hierarchy without a penny to pinch might have to relinquish its central defensive partnership for fairly measly sums. At least one Championship club attempted to tempt Morgan away from the shores of the River Trent last summer and, after a season of turmoil, who could blame him for wanting to get away having spent 400 games of his career mainly bumbling around in footballing mediocrity despite regularly being referred to as one of the Championship’s toughest opponents by players across the league. Morgan is much undervalued by the Forest faithful; in an age where loyalty is all but dried up, Morgan has given his all for the club.

Aside from the defensive partnership, it would seem that Lewis McGugan is the most likely exit from Forest. Interest from Newcastle last summer did not materialise into a serious offer but the price would likely be significantly lower than it was last summer, such is the effect of the events this season at the City Ground. A highly saleable asset due to his deeply impressive highlights reel, the sale of McGugan could actually provide the best opportunity for Forest to get a bit of capital in to the club to spend. Both Radoslaw Majewski and Andy Reid, should he stay at Forest past January, can provide a relatively similar level of ability in the final third.

Despite being comfortably one of the most talented players in this division, even with the likes of West Ham having been relegated, McGugan regularly flatters to deceive and apart from four or five months of last season has completely failed to live up to the potential that is so obvious. It would be disappointing to see McGugan leave but not overwhelmingly so since a lot of the disappointment towards him has seeped out over the years when more was expected. While many would not be entirely against the selling of McGugan, it remains feasible to build a team around him should no offer materialise. A player like McGugan could still turn around Forest’s season.

However, the worries of a fire sale will be immediately quelled when clubs ring up and find out how much money some of these players are on. Whilst Forest may be looking to let McGoldrick go, the clubs that have scouted him would be unlikely to offer the sort of transfer fee and wages that would see a deal completed.

Suggestions in certain quarters are that Cotterill may look to move on the big name players brought in by Steve McClaren, but there is no doubt that that will be easier said than done. Reid, Jonathan Greening, Ishmael Miller and Matt Derbyshire are all on the sort of wages that many Championship clubs will simply not be willing to offer and, despite them all having reputations to tempt, this will make it difficult for Forest to trade them out.

Only one thing remains definite about the forthcoming January transfer window — it’s impossible to predict what, if anything, will happen.

Follow Peter on Twitter: @petermblackburn

All comments welcome…


  • N0410170@my.ntu.ac.uk

    Selling Chambers would be a decent option – cashing in while they can might be the best course of action, especially with Lynch playing well this season at centre back, and with guys like Lascelles waiting in the wings to fill in it could work.

    Agree with you completely about the summer signings – high wages and high expectations but have provided low quality. Greening showed signs of what he is capable of on Saturday but other than that disappointing, and Derbyshire has never lived up to the hype of someone with vast Premiership experience.

  • Nigel Miller

    Really a fire sale would surely mean that the club have any really saleable assets to de- value. Currently the whole first team are failing to live up to their previous billing.McGugan looks totally dissinterested and several of the current first team are just going through the motions without really showing that they care a jot about the fans. My wife summed it up on Sunday when she commented that it was pointless me and my son getting upset as the players will still be earning far larger sums of money whether they win or lose every week.
    Yes the players brought in at the start of the season have to be seen as a drain on the restricted resources now that Mr Doughty has thrown his toys out of the pram.
    Yes any assets that are sold will probably go on the cheap should January arise. Will it weaken the team; well look at the league table and theoretically it couldn’t be much worse. These Players are supposed to be professional footballers who have a trade, the facts are they care not about the club and should they leave Forest they will be kissing the badge of the next employers within the course of a couple of months without a thought of the fans.

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  • Southern Forest Fan

    Derbyshire, Boatang and Chambers should all go for sure. We should get some money for Derbyshire, Boatang will ease the wages (although as I understand he’s not on massive wages anyway) and Chambers could get a little fee and I don’t think he’s played well all season (since being made captain), so I don’t see the big loss.

    I’m not sure about Lewis, I think he’s a better player that Raddy but they are both very inconsistant of late and in this day and age i’m not sure what £1.5m would actually do to help our situation..(the last thing we want to do is bring more old duffers in and just use the money to pay wages). In an ideal world I would get rid of Raddy and keep Lewis, but in reality nobody seems to be able to get the best of him since Davis (and it took him a while to get him playing well) so….

    In terms of the players who are almost out of contract, I understand the risk with letting him leave for nothing, but at the end of the day what has Anderson for example actually done (I realise h’es been inured a lot) to deserve a new contract?? He only cost a couple hundred grand and he’s been very mediaocer since signing for us permineantly??

  • Husky Red

    I wonder if Derbyshire might get an option at one of the lower prem clubs. His pedigree is good enough but he isnt as suited to the more physical demands of the championship as others.

    Sadly Boateng is in his final season, and I doubt anyone will take a half season off us, so we will be paying him up until next year.

    Personally I hope Reidy and Google stay. Radi has, in fact, been much more inconsistent than Lewis, and frankly if we end up with no creative central midfield options (such as if Radi got injured) then our ability to bang in the goals is even further diminished.

    An interesting stat for you – so far Lewis has had about 30% of all the shots on goal of the team. Almost twice the nearest other player. (Miller – who is himself way above the others).

    That says a lot about both his attacking threat, but also the paucity of chances our strikers are taking.

    Thinking about which players to sell is a divisive game though. Even McGoldrick has shown some good touches in the bit part he has played recently, and whilst many might have put McCleary on the list of ‘can do without’ at the start of this season, he was our best player on Saturday and is highly rated off the pitch.

    Best approach would be decide what positions we want what depth in, and identify by position rather than person, who is over what we need and where we are short.

  • http://mistrollingin.wordpress.com Mistrollingin

    As ever in these situations the players you would want to sell are the ones that no one will want. Our numerous strikers will be taking a big chunk of the wage bill – even the likes of McGoldrick who have made little impact is rumoured to be on substantial wages. Meanwhile Chambers, playing a position where we are not blessed with great depth, is thought to be on relatively little – so would be a good one to keep on new terms that might still fit with the club’s financial future.
    Re-configuring the squad is going to be a long and difficult process. How will Miller’s motivation be on big wages but in a struggling team and what impact do his structure busting wages have on other players? Meanwhile who would take him off our hands with his lack of goals, prevalence of injury and high costs?
    Having lost so many good young players in the past to recoup poorly used transfer funds it would be a big blow to lose the likes of Lascelles in the same way, especially if the outcome is just to pay up contracts on overpaid mistakes.
    Frankly, the club is a mess and no route out of it is likely to be pleasant.

  • Andrew Lloyd (@Pukkatronic)

    Surely for the right price everyone is for sale? This season is already over and we will be happy to be in the same division next year. Working out who can be let go and represent good value for that is something the manager and board should now be doing as the future, minus a sheikh, fake or otherwise, looks to be considerably more breadline than past years. Chambers and McGugan would look to top any “oubound” list. with Greening and Derbyshire not far behind. I would like to hold onto Miller but that may not prove possible.

  • rippey89

    There are various factors to consider when who to sell. It’s been widely discussed since revealed last week that the wage bill is again over 100% of turnover, so the main issue that needs to be addressed is the cutting of the wage bill, therefore selling the highest earners at the club. Who are they? Well no one really knows but it’s a fair probability that, Boateng aside, they’re likely to be the signings we made in the summer. Greening has begun to settle now, as has Reid, they’ve both began to show they perhaps do have the quality that we all hoped they would, on occasion against Crystal Palace Greening displayed a quality of pass and set piece that we haven’t seen from McGugan or Reid this season, and playing alongside him, deep in the centre Reid was far more effective than when he’s been played in a further advanced position or out wide. Derbyshire hasn’t looked great so far, but has he had a fair crack of the whip? It’s hard to say he should go when he’s had so little chance to prove himself. Miller, well I think he’s probably the highest earner at the club and will be until his contract ends, he’s not prolific enough, earns too much and is too injury prone for anyone to want to sign him, I know some fans have said he’s only had one serious injury which is true, but West Brom wanted shot as they didn’t think he’d stay fit and he’s now on his second lengthy lay-off in his short time at the club.

    Secondly, will there be any demand? Forest will be far from alone in belt tightening and reducing the wage bill, it’s something that’s likely to happen at every other Championship club too, so is anyone from our league going to pay the wages of our highest earners, or pay a substantial fee for anyone with value? Not likely. One player I’ve seen people saying to sell is Camp. Who will buy him? The only club who’s shown any real interest is, as far as I’m aware, Swansea. We wouldn’t sell him so they signed two other keepers instead and there will be zero interest from them any more. Are any Championship clubs likely to want to pay £1m for a keeper? Most also have able keepers, especially the clubs at the top, Green, Steele, Davis, Marshall, Federici etc. all do a fine job. It’s unlikely any NPC clubs will come in for him so will any Premier League clubs want him? I certainly can’t see him being first choice anywhere, and most clubs already have an able back-up. QPR have been short in recent weeks and Colin has been moaning but Kenny, Murphy and Cerny is a good trio. The only four clubs I could see even begin to show an interest are Bolton, Wigan, West Brom and Fulham, but most of those have got far bigger things to worry about than a back-up keeper.

    Another thing to consider is cover. If we were to sell someone would we miss them? Our squad currently consists of 23 players. 23 players is a fine number to have, two for every position, if a few are versatile then even better, and a third keeper. But of the 20 outfield players we have 6 strikers and 6 central midfielders (7 if I include Cohen), with just 6 defenders (one who leaves on Dec 31st) it’s completely out of balance, so we can’t really afford to sell a defender, or a winger. Of the rest, it’s trying to maximise a fee and wage savings with demand. To maximise a fee there needs to be demand, but any player who has a significant amount of clubs who want him, is probably one we’re better off keeping…..

    So, a long post and I’ve not offered any solutions, but that’s because I don’t have any. There are too many variables and fine details that we don’t have enough info on.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Robert.S.Porter Robert Porter

    Obviously not a Forest supporter! I dont know how you can say Wes Morgan is under valued by the fans quite the contrary I assure you, Big Wes is a very well respected player and the fact that he is from Nottingham gives him even more Kudos!

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